In an excellent article today, Bill Bradley starts off with the observation: "Five weeks before election day, California’s Democrats are in something of a state of disarray." This is the understatement of the season. His next sentences point out the primary problem:
Ticket-topper Phil Angelides trails by double digits in every one of the state’s public polls, reflecting what has been the reality in private polls for many weeks. Nothing he has tried against Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has really worked.
Californians, at least Southern Californians, do not want a Governor who says he will usurp the President and recall all California Guard back home from their assignments fighting terrorism. They do not want a Governor whose campaign platform is gay marriage and raising taxes. Now, what they want in the socialist substate known as Northern California is another issue and a mindset that I cannot explain.
Bradlee goes on to reflect (in bold type): "That big Democratic wave predicted across America, that would sweep right through mostly blue state California? Not happening here."
Tom McClintock has a slight edge over John Garamendi for lieutenant governor, for example, reversing the Democrat’s previous 10-point lead in the Field Poll.
The new San Jose State poll shows that the elaborate strategy of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides and the California Democratic Party to bring down Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger by pinning him to unpopular President George W. Bush is a flop. The all-important independents don’t care. Even most Democrats don’t. Nearly 60% of Democrats and liberals say the linkage has no effect on their vote for governor of California.
There was no good news for Angelides in the LA Times poll. In terms of preference, Schwarzenegger actually underperforms the poll’s internals. (There, that’s the good news.)
In addition to the huge lead for Schwarzenegger over Angelides, 50% to 33%, the former action superstar’s job approval rating is up to a whopping 56%. Schwarzenegger is viewed as the superior leader by 60% of likely voters. Only 20% pick Angelides. Schwarzenegger also has a clear edge on integrity and trustworthiness, 43% to 25%. The former Mr. Universe also leads Angelides on all major issue areas.
Schwarzenegger and his new political team have run an outstanding campaign. The state treasurer and his team have not, shall we say, run an outstanding campaign, in essence conducting a second primary campaign since the actual June primary election. That is to the extent that there is a discernible strategy beyond a series of stunts.
With his Iraq War gambit falling flat, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides is returning to the Schwarzenegger tape fiasco, demanding that the governor release the rest of the audio tapes of private conversations that Angelides opposition researchers surreptitiously obtained from the governor’s server. The Angelides camp only slipped one tape to the LA Times, which promptly slapped the take on the front page.
Angelides insisted again yesterday that Schwarzenegger equals Bush, claiming: “What matters is, up and down the line, the Bush agenda is the Schwarzenegger agenda.”
Aaaaah, but there is always Maxine Waters to appeal to whatever community she has influence over, right?
His ally, longtime Congresswoman Maxine Waters, led a group of 20 “rough-looking,” as Schwarzenegger aide Margaret Fortune called them, protesters who showed up outside a private meeting between the governor and a group of African-American ministers at Dulan’s Restaurant in LA’s Crenshaw District. Schwarzenegger and the group of 20 ministers discussed the crisis with the Martin Luther King/Charles Drew Medical Center’s and the governor’s determination to help. The media and the Angelides campaign have lately tumbled to the fact that Schwarzenegger is cultivating African-American ministers and the community’s vote. The protesters, arriving in a non-profit social service center’s vans, chanted “Terminate the Terminator” (original), and Waters herself reportedly confronted the ministers for consorting with the enemy. Waters didn’t respond to requests for comment on the incident.
Of course she didn't. These are blind punch throwers who run away after they think they got their licks in.
You can read the full article here.
The bottom line is that Arnold is going to win big. How long his coattails will be is still up in the air, but the Republican showing will be much better than the national party back in Washington expected, that is for sure.
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