During a discussion about the released NIE report at Just One Minute, Dale of Atlanta posted a very long comment detailing his experiences with Middle Eastern intelligence. Dale spent years as part of the military intelligence community. I asked his permission to repost the comment here for all to read and he graciously gave his permission. So here it is in its entirety. The meat of it is quite informative with some eye openers as well.
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Originally Posted by: Dale in Atlanta | September 27, 2006 at 11:12 AM
Sara: I, and many of my IC "friends", have advocated dismantling the CIA for over a decade; but no one will listen....!
Gary: I've been a Cowboy fan for 35 years (I'm not from Atlanta!); and TO has/is/will ruin my team! Thanks!
All: Rick Moran over at Rightwingnuthouse, threw the NIE open to "discusion" last night; I was up until 2am, giving him my "thoughts"; here it is for you all!
Sorry, no time to clean up the spelling/grammar!
Rick: so much to say, so little time; it’s late and I have to go to bed soon, have a day job, but I’ll see what I can bang out real quick!
Leak: Politically motivated? Ah, yes; it’s so patentedly obvious; it’s really not open for discussion. President is not going to change any minds among the Leftists by Declassifying it anyhow, they made up their minds the day he was elected; he declassified it for his supporters; they’re the only ones he can reach anyhow.
PS: it’s appearing on Leftist Blogs now, that this has been Declassed, and it isn’t “bad” enough, that there is “another” NIE out there, being “sat” on by the President, that is solely focused on Iraq, and it’s ALL bad!
I strongly suspect that this is wishful thinking by Leftist Blogs and the Leftist press; my guess is that they’re getting vibes thru their rumormills, about the Classified Intel Report leaked by the WashPost & NYT two weeks ago, about the Al Anbar Province, written by that Marine Corps Intel Colonel (who’s a friend of mine, by the way…). Though it IS possible there is another NIE about Iraq sitting out there, I highly suspect I’m correct. IF there was a totally negative NIE about Iraq out there floating about the Intelligence Community, the anti-Bush/Rumsfield factions in the Pentagon would’ve already leaked it to the MSM, like they’ve done with this NIE, in an attempt to damage the President before the mid-term elections. Anyway, time will tell if I’m correct, or just swinging in the wind!
For the question of whether the Iraq War is causing an increase in Global Jihad, I have a rhetorical question:
a)Were we in Iraq, when 3000 people were killed in PA, VA, and NYC on 9/11?
b)Were we in Iraq, when the USS Cole was bombed, and 16 US Sailors murdered, and we were just lucky that the whole ship didn’t sink, killing hundreds?
c)Were we in Iraq, when the two AmEmbassies in East Africa were bombed, killing hundreds of innocent locals, and some 50 Americans?
d)Were we in Iraq, when the Khobar Towers were bombed in Saudi Arabia, killing scores there?
e)Were we in Iraq, when the attack on the WTC in 93 was initiated, and killed 6 and wounded people? Something that’s mentioned about that attack is that IF it had been successful, and that fact that it wasn’t was just an accident; but Ramzi Yousef’s plan was to topple the one tower, into the other, and bring them both down! IF that attack had been successful, it’s possible as many as 20,000 people would’ve been killed! Think about that! Were we in Iraq then?
f)Were we in Iraq when the same people planned the Bojinak airliner plot over in the Philippines, which if successful, would’ve killed as many as 3000+ people, in 1995?
g)Were we in Iraq, when Al Qaeda planned, and carried off the attack against our Peace Keepers in Somalia in 1993?
h)Please note, American troops, acting as Peace Keepers in Lebanon in 1983 and Somalia in 1993 were attacked and murdered.
i)Please also note, that America, protecting Muslim populations in Bosnia, in 1996 and in Kuwait in 1991, still was not good enough for the Jihadis, and we were still attacked and mudered, shortly after each event; so even protecting Muslims, from themselves, and their enemies, hasn’t been enough, to stop the Jihadis from attacking us and killing us!
Anyway Rick, if you can ask all the Leftists who oppose the Iraq War, and spout the meme that the Iraq War has CAUSED Jihadism, if you can ask them those questions, I’d be happy to listen to their answers!
Does a terrorist success breed more jihadists? Such as 9/11, etc.
I don’t know if anyone has ever done any in-depth analysis on this, and if so, it would be hard to quantify/put numbers on it!
But, it only makes logical sense, that the answer is Yes! Military recruitment in the US goes up, during/after “successful” Wars, such as the Gulf War, and also when we’re attacked, like 9/11. Those are historical facts; so it only makes sense, that that applies to them. I can’t imagine, under any scenario, which the Inverse is true; that Terrorist “success” causes the number of Jihadis to go down!
Remember, they declared war on us, not vice versa, and they view this as a War that will last decades, if not longer, whereas we are too stupid to realize that yet; so I doubt that any success has a negative impact on their recruiting!
As for this part of the NIE:
Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:
1. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
2. Iraq Jihad
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
I would personally, based upon 30+ years experience in the Middle East, and as a Marine Intel Officer and Analyst/Specialist on Islamic Fundamentalism, the correct order of these is:
1. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
2. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. Iraq Jihad
Iraq is an excuse, given to them mainly by the Western Leftists, who they view as kindred spirits, and whose talking points they not only study, but use back at us, in propaganda audios/videos from Bin Laden/Zawahiri, and formerly Zarqawi, and now the new mouthpiece, the American Jihadi, Adnan Ghadan
When I first started traveling throughout the Middle East, in the last 1970’s, the Anti-Americanism was already there; the core issue was US support for the State of Israel, which in their view, the ONLY reason it exists, then, and today, is because of US economic and military support, and the support of the US Jewish community; which according to THEM, controls the US Government, the US Media, the US Banking Industry, Hollywood, etc.
Let me make this absolutely clear: THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE THIS! This is a firm as “truth” to them, as death and taxes are to us!
Anyway, the anti-Americanism was already there, and every single setback, every single act, every single event, is viewed as being manipulated, or caused to happen, by the US, via it’s Jewish masters! Again, in this respect, they’re a lot like the Looney Left in this country, and Europe, with the anti-Semitism!
Don’t forget, this goes at least back to WWII; the Arabs, specifically countries like Egypt, and people like the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, WHOLEHEARTEDLY thru their lot in with Nazi Germany and the Italian Fascists!
The Grand Mufti went to Germany, to help plan the Holocaust, which they now deny, in an irony of all ironies! From Tunisia, to Egypt, to Syria, to Iraq, to Palestine, Nazi Germany was the flavor of the day! The Grand Mufti helped form a Division of Muslim troops in the Balkans, to fight under the Nazi flag!
After WWII, it was short step from supporting Fascism, to alliances with the Soviet Union for Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Algeria, and post-Kaddafi, Libya!
From there, it is a short segue into Point #2; I really, in my entire career in the Middle East, never heard of such a thing as a “moderate” Imam on a Friday morning. Politically Correct Westerners will pooh-pooh this, and Muslims practicing TAQIYYAH will deny it; but for centuries, the pulpits of the Imams have been used to Islamicize, and preach Jihad, to generations of Muslims.
I presciently wrote about this very issue, 16 years ago, attempting to warn the Intel Community about the threat of increasing Jihadism, post the Gulf War.
Imams preach the glory days of Islam, from the pulpit, and a weekly basis on Friday mornings; the Glory that was the worldwide Islamic Caliphate, from the Pyrenees Mountains in Spain, to the sub-tropical jungles of West Africa, to the shores of Zanzibar in East Africa, to the Caucus Mountains in Central Asia, to the archipelago of the Philippine Islands!
The bygone Golden Empires of Al Andalus and the Alhambra in Granada, the Ottoman Caliphate, the blue city of Bukhara, the wonders of the Mughal Empire in India, and the Taj Mahal, to the conversion of the Hagia Sophia chuch into a Mosque in Istanbul, are events in Islamic history, that are inculcated into EVERY Muslim child, from the time they can read/write/attend Mosque!
Coupled with the inherent sense of superiority within Islam itself; the one “true” religion; the only true monotheistic religion; the only “revealed” religion; the only religion whose Holy Book has been unaltered, and unadulterated by Man, etc., and you have a “people”, Muslims, who arrogantly believe that THEY are the chosen ones, their religion proves it, but the past 700 years of History, since the Reconqista in Spain in 1492, has been TOTALLY against them!
They cannot, for the life of them, rationally rectify this painfully obvious dichotomy, and it has psychologically impacted an entire religion of people, and their behavior, for 700 years!
Point #3 is a “strawman” argument, thrown in there to satisfy the “PC” crowd with in the Intelligence Community!
Right thinking Muslims, don’t even believe in Democracy; not like we do in the West, anyhow. Al Qaeda itself makes that clear! Democracy is contrary to the teaching of Islam; the ONLY Democracy you will have, within a Sharia-controlled society, is what Allah gives you! End of story!
And with a Insha’allah (God Wills it), Bokra (Tomorrow), Ma’alesh (Never mind) mindset (IBM it is referred to by Westerners in the “know”); especially among Sunnis, who completely believe in Allah’s Will, and predestination (they passed a law in the Jordanian Parliament a decade ago, outlawing spare tires in Automobiles, because to carry one, was thwarting the will of Allah!!), and you can see, that social, economic, and political reform is a chimera for Muslims; if Allah wanted them to have it, they would have it!
That’s how the Jihadis are callously and capriciously able to exploit scores of homicide bombers (Shaheed, i.e. “martys”); they don’t tell them, if you kill Americans/Apostates, we’ll pay you $10,000; they tell them your life is shit on this earth, and the ONLY chance you have for a better one, is kill yourself in the service of Jihad, and go to heaven, and have all the Houris (virgins) and Ghalims (prebubescent boys) and water and alcohol you can handle!
Here’s a prime example to use, when Leftist start the meme, like point #3 alludes too, that “poverty” causes “terrorism”, and the Muslims outrage against the US, and inspired the 9/11 plotters (despite the fact, that people like Muhammed Atta, and most of his fellow plotters, and most of the Jihadi middlemen, as well as leaders, are in fact, firmly entrenched in the Middle Eastern MIDDLE CLASS; university educated, middle class families and reputations, and homes, etc.
Anyway, here’s a piece of analysis, you’ll see now where else; name the Top 20 POOREST counties in the World:
1East Timor $ 500
2Somalia $ 500
3Sierra Leone $ 500
4Malawi $ 600
5Tanzania $ 600
6Burundi $ 600
7Congo, Republic of the $ 700
8Congo, Democratic Republic of the $ 700
9Comoros $ 700
10Eritrea $ 700
11Ethiopia $ 700
12Afghanistan $ 700
13Niger $ 800
14Yemen $ 800
15Madagascar $ 800
16Guinea-Bissau $ 800
17Zambia $ 800
18Kiribati $ 800
19Nigeria $ 900
20Mali $ 900
Now, go back, and tell me, which ones have produced Jihadis, and Homicide Bombers, and which one has citizens, that have attacked the US, and Western Europe, et. al??
I’ve pulled them out for you:
2Somalia $ 500
5Tanzania $ 600
12Afghanistan $ 700
14Yemen $ 800
What do those Four have in common, I wonder? Only one that I can think of……wait for it……ISLAM! Isn’t that interesting? How uncomfortable do you think that makes the Leftists feel???
Where are the homicide bombers from East Timor?? How about Sierra Leone? Were any of the 9/11 murderers from Madagascar? I’m sure there are people in Eritrea, who have grievances against the United States; how come they’re not blowing us up? What about Haiti, in our own backyard, the Caribbean? It’s not on this list, but we all know it’s an economic basket case? Where are the Haitian homicide bombers and plotters?
In fact, the ONLY Jihadis, to come out of our hemisphere, except for the “homegrowns” in Canada, and Johnny Taliban here, and the Malvo sniper guy, Padilla etc., have come from the two countries that have a Muslim minority community: Jamaica and Trinidad & Tabago!
So the Lefitst meme, that “poverty” (usually implied as being caused by the United States and Oil Companies) causes the Jihadies to hate and attack us, has just been totally deconstructed here!
If you know your history, and demographics, you’ll notice on that list, there are ARE some countries there, such as the Comoros, Malawi, Nigeria, etc., that DO have Muslim minority populations, or in the case of the Comoros, Muslim Majority populations!
That’s Correct! I NEVER said ALL Muslims, worldwide, in ALL countries, were Jihadis or “terrorists”! However, I will say, that EVERY “terrorist” attack, against us, since the Gulf War, EXCEPT for the Oklahoma City bombing done in 1995, WAS done by Jihadis/Muslims.
Does that make ALL Muslims “terrorist”? Again, NO! But it makes the likelihood, that the next time there is a “terrorist” attack against American/Americans somewhere, that it is/are Jihadis/Muslims who carried it out!
Again Point #4 is one that we want them to have; if it wasn’t Iraq, it would be American support for Israel; which by the way, since we WEREN’T IN IRAQ, during Somalia, WTC ’93, Bojinka Plot, Khobar, etc., are the EXACT excuses that Ramzi Yousef and his uncle, Khaled Sheikh Muhammed used! Go research their testimony, over at the “Wiki”, and you’ll see!
And, if it wasn’t US support for Israel, it would be something else. Syed Qutb, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, visited the US BEFORE Israel was founded, and decided he HATED the US, and Westerners, because we too crude, no class, to rough, too loud, too sexual, too new, to uncivilized!
They’d find any excuse, and seize it; which is something you cannot convince the apologetic Leftists, in this country, or Europe, to realize!
Finally, someone needs to explain to Americans, and the World, WHY Islam in general is the way it is, and why it is susceptible to the Jihadi mindset, and why it susceptible to Anti-Americanism/Anti-Western feelings and propaganda!
The short answer is again a Leftist meme, started decades ago by sympathetic, Leftist Historians in American & European Academia: THE CRUSADES!
That inaccurate meme has been so thoroughly deconstructed; it’s not even worth debating anymore!
If you want to see them deconstructed by a professional, here is a good place to start:
http://www.firstthings.com/ftissues/ft0506/articles/madden.html
As for me, based upon my own personal observations and experiences, these are the underlying factors; we have to take into account, which you’ll probably see nowhere else.
IF you go back, and look at the crucial time period, the Reconquista in Spain, and the crucial date of 1492 when the Christian and Muslim worldwide societies really began to diverge after Christian Spain finally defeated the last Muslim Emirate in Granada, and expelled all Muslims & Jews from Spain, there are several crucial things that differentiate the two competing Religious Societies:
Western Christian Societies underwent Two Major Transformative Events: Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolutions!
The times/dates were different for every major country, but in general, those two events took place in almost every major Christian power.
For Muslim Societies, the Reconquista in 1492 was the END of their golden ages; yes, there were brief flourishes in the Mughal Empire in India, and the Ottoman Empire, as well as some Central Asian flourishes; but in general, the Muslims societies, especially those most in constant contact with the west, and in closest geographical proximity, took the Reconquista, psychologically, very hard, and began Centuries of retrenchment, regression, suppression, and Devolution!
Religiously, the Council of Nicea in the 4th century, basically “unified” Christianity for hundreds of years until Henry VIII & Reformation etc. Granted, there were “exceptions”, such as the Cathars/Albigensians, the whole Gnostic movement and the Dualists, such as the Bogomils, Manicheans, etc. But basically, the Catholic Church was pretty aggressive in stamping out dissent, and “heresies”, and until Henry VIII and Martin Luther; it was pretty mono-theocratic!
Islam, if you now anything about the history of it at all, was the exact opposite! From the day that Muhammed died, Islam was a fractured religion! With no clear successor, the first schism appeared with the Shi’ites, and the Khajirits; two groups who did not want to follow Abu Bakr, Muhammed’s uncle and elected successor!
It went downhill from there, with literally hundreds of Sunni, Sufi, and Shi’ite sects, canonical schoos, etc., vying for control of Islam, and control of the message!
In other words, Christianity was unified for centuries, Islam was not, and has not, and never will be!
Additionally, another unifying factor for Christianity was that at it’s founding, Christianity was an oppressed religion! It was the new kid on the block; competing against its Jewish progenitors, and the big guys: Egyptian Pharaonic Religion; the Greek & Roman pagan religions, Mithraism, Zoroastrianism, Gnosticism, and even splits in its own ranks (prior to Nicea). Christian converts in Roman, use to have battles in the streets with followers of Mithraism, over meeting places and followers! Historically, Christianity was actually a dicey proposition for several centuries, and struggled to just survive, let alone spread. This “toughness”, and ruthlessness, that helped it survive and grow, served it well, in its later struggles with Islam!
Islam on the other hand, came to being, really, at a time where there was a major Political and Military “vacuum” in the Middle East. The old Roman Empire had collapsed, the Byzantine Empire was weak; the Zoroastrian Empire was collapsing in Persia; Egypt was Christian, but a shadow of its former self, and most of the Middle East was devolving into city-state status!
Most people don’t realize, but in less than a hundred years from it’s founding by Muhammed in Mecca, Muslim armies had spread across the Middle East, North Africa, and out into Central Asia, Persia, India, and into Indonesia, and as far as the Philippines and East Africa!
Muslim armies crossed from Morocco, into Spain, and were at the Pyrenees, by 732AD! The growth rate was phenomenal, and too fast!
When things were going good for them, and they were expanding, or in a form of stasis, things were fine! When Muslim armies started to suffer their first defeats, and setbacks, in the 11th century, at the hands of the Mongols, THAT is what spawned the Salafiyyah movement, under Ibn Tamiyyah, that exists up until today, under Bin Laden and Al Qaeda
After the Reconquista, Christian societies came out of the so-called “dark ages”, and began a remarkable ascent, politically, religiously, economically, colonially; all of these evolving factors naturally caused the actual hold of the religion itself on society, to evolve, and weaken.
Obviously, this very weakening, those two Transformative events, Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolution, DID NOT occur at all, or only on a very limited scale/location (possibly Ataturk’s Turkey!), in Muslim Societies worldwide!
Without those two major societal transformative events, that is how today, you have a 1000+ year old Theological philosophy, Salafiyism, that believes it’s okay to cut people’s heads off, that still hold’s sway over a healthy minority of worldwide Muslim societies, and more disturbingly, a larger percentage of supporters and sympathizers worldwide!
There’s an additional Economic factor consider as well!
I once had a wise old Anthropology professor, at the American University of Cairo, ask our class, composed mostly of Egyptian students, how far they thought that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were “behind” the US?
There was some nervous laughter and glances, and then after some discussion, the Egyptian students agreed that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were about 150 years “behind” the West/America.
The professor then put this up on the board:
Islam: Ramadan: month long fast; loses also at least 5 weeks of economic productivity each year!
Anyone who knows anything about Islam, the custom of the Holy month of Fasting during Ramadan, and who has been to an Islamic country when they are actually in observance of Ramadan, will immediately know what the Professor was talking about!
They go on a 5 week holiday every year, mandated by their religion, and because they have to Fast all day, including liquids, and thus eat & sleep and fornicate at night, only, between sunset and sunrise, they lose 5 weeks per year, of Economic Productivity!
That’s amazing!
If you factor in the fact that since it’s founding, Islam has basically been around for 1400 years; and thus 5 weeks per year, you get a figure of 135 YEARS of lost economic productivity, and even cultural and societal and governmental as well, over the 1400 year course of Islamic History!
Not far off, from those Egyptian’s students “guess”, all those years ago!
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Note: Mali, mentioned in Dale's piece was also the base of operations for AQ Khan as he established his nuke selling network.