Via: Hugh Hewitt
"[T]he much-talked about potential upset in the 50th District did not materialize."
That's from the Washington Post report on the 50th Congressional District in California, where GOP nominee Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francis Busby yesterday. With 481 of 500 precincts counted (more than 96% of the vote):
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
58566
49.48%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
53598
45.28%
W. GRIFFITH - IND
4379
3.70%
PAUL KING - LIB
1822
1.54%Border security trumped "culture of corruption," and my guess is that Michael Barone will conclude, as he did after Ohio's primary, that the GOP base may not be happy, but they are smart and know the effects of a Democratic majority on the war on terror and the economy, and thus keep turning up. The incredible levels of venom on the left are also very off-putting to average voters, and the inability of the Democratic leadership to separate itself from the virulent strain of netroots have become a real handicap.
Also in California, Arnold continues to get very lucky in his opponents. Phil Angelides is as way left a Democratic nominee as possible, and Angelides' endorsement of driver's licenses and in-state tuition for illegal aliens, as well as his demand for higher taxes and his Mr. Peepers' appearance will cripple him out of the gate. Arnold will coast.
I live in California and for years I lived in the 50th, Duke Cunningham's old district. I know this will sound like hindsight speaking, but I never had any doubts that Bilbray would win. Frankly, I could not imagine this district going dem, Republicans aren't that stupid to give away the farm over a snit. In fact, the closeness, 5 points, can also be a fooler to those prone to wishful thinking. That closeness is due strictly to the low turnout. Don't count on it for the Fall election.
As to the gubernatorial race, I have had serious doubts as to whether Arnold could pull off a win in November until this morning. The idea that someone as far left as Angelides can win statewide over Arnold seems pretty far fetched at this point, even when considering the Los Angeles county and Marin/Alameda county voting blocks. And when Arnold turns on his "Hollywood" movie idol personae how can Angleides compete? Plus, I'm not a big supporter of the massive build a fence border group, but I'm totally against giving perks to illegals, perks such as driver's licenses, free medical, and tuition. And higher taxes? What is that all about? We are already drowning in high taxes and fees here in this State. But, I have a confession to make ... I am hoping that come November, my house will be sold and I will be out of this state, so I'll watch the campaigning, but I don't feel real invested in whatever the outcome might be.
Newt Gingrich via Curiouser and Curiouser:
Had the Democrats won, this would be a morning of giddy excitement for Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean. Their allies in Washington and across the country would have been energized and Republicans would have been panic stricken. House Minority Leader Pelosi would be on the phone to every major donor explaining what their victory meant and why it justified more resources for the fall campaign. The left’s columnists and pundits would have filled the airwaves and the newspaper and magazines with predictions of imminent Republican disaster. The DCCC chairman, Congressman Rahm Emanuel, would be on television this morning claiming a harbinger for the fall election. The elite media would have been thrilled at the prospect of a Republican loss of the House this fall. We would have heard the phrase “bellwether election” over and over this morning on the morning shows.
Instead, we had almost no coverage.
They lost.
This is now a fact.
It is a big fact.
What you may not know about CA-50
The Democrats’ defeat is even more than it appears. If CA-50, my home congressional district, tells us anything about now or November, it’s the premature electionation of the Democrats and allies in the major media. Both on a local and national-issue basis, the Democrats have overstepped on the issues and on their compatibility with the majority of voters. ... more
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